Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential big move, as one of its key technical indicators, the Bollinger Bands, has tightened to record levels. This compression typically signals a period of low volatility, but historically, it often precedes a major breakout.
Popular crypto analyst Mr Anderson noted on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands are now the narrowest in history. “When volatility compresses this tightly, expansion always follows,” they said. “Once it begins, price usually tests the outer bands very quickly.”
Nassar Achkar, Chief Strategy Officer at CoinW Exchange, told Cointelegraph that this extreme compression could be “the calm before a significant volatility storm.” He added that while a September pullback toward $100,000 is possible, factors like negative funding rates, seasonal trends, and institutional inflows make a bullish surge more likely. Hunters of Web3 founder Langerius echoed this, noting,
“Compression this extreme rarely resolves quietly.”
Bitcoin’s price chart with technical indicators showing the cryptocurrency’s Bollinger Bands are highly compressed. Source: Mr. Anderson
Not all analysts are convinced this is a major signal. Glassnode researcher CryptoVizArt argued that Bitcoin’s overall volatility has naturally declined over time as the market has grown. “This is simply an observation without real predictive value,” they said, cautioning against reading too much into the Bollinger Bands squeeze.
Historical data suggests there may be reason for optimism. In early July, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands were similarly tight around $108,000. Shortly after, volatility surged, driving BTC to a new all-time high above $122,000 by mid-July. The indicator tightened again in early September, hitting its most extreme monthly levels since Bitcoin’s inception.
As October approaches, analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s next move. IG Group analyst Tony Sycamore believes the market may need more time to correct after the year’s massive gains. Yet many traders are looking at historical patterns: Bitcoin has risen in 10 of the past 12 Octobers and 8 of the past 12 fourth quarters. With the market entering a period often called “Uptober,” a major breakout could be on the horizon.
Source: Bitcoin is historically green in ‘Uptober’ but red in ‘Septembear’. Source: CoinGlass
