Bitcoin has hit a significant roadblock around $116,000, according to analysts at Bitfinex, who say the cryptocurrency is unlikely to break through this level until it gains fresh momentum. The flagship digital asset recently touched an all-time high of $124,100 on August 14, but its upward push has slowed, leaving Bitcoin fluctuating between $108,000 and $116,000, the range where many recent buyers are now underwater.
Bitcoin is up 4.34% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,370, showing a modest rebound over the past week as the market anticipates a key decision from the US Federal Reserve. Traders are closely watching Wednesday’s rate announcement, with expectations pointing to a 25 basis point cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 96.1% probability of such a reduction.
The potential rate cut has sparked debate among crypto analysts, with opinions split on how Bitcoin might respond. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee highlighted the possibility that a rate reduction, marking the Fed’s first cut this year, could trigger a significant surge for both Bitcoin and Ether in the coming months. He described it as a potential catalyst for a “monster move” over the next three months.
Conversely, some analysts are not so optimistic. Cryptocurrency commentator Ted pointed out that he anticipates the Fed to lower the rates, but the Bitcoin price will go to $104000 or 92000 and start soaring to newer heights. This type of forecast highlights the uncertainty of the market, and even the optimistic events in the economy are not always followed by a sudden rise in prices.
Low interest rates normally push investors to withdraw funds from safe securities such as bonds and term deposits and into riskier securities such as cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, analysts caution that if the market had already discounted a rate cut, then the prices could fall unpredictably or even drop in the short term before any meaningful profits.
The mood of investors towards the crypto market is both positive and negative. Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a market mood, has a current score of 53, which is neutral according to Wednesday. This shows the mixture of hope that the buildup of catalysts may occur and the concern that has arisen because of the current movements in prices.
Bitfinex analysts also pointed out that the recent pullback, which saw Bitcoin dip to $107,400 on September 1, was largely driven by investors who had bought during the past six months. Long-term holders, however, appear confident, suggesting that those who accumulated during the February–May correction used the recent rebound to exit profitably. This selling activity may pose temporary headwinds for further upward momentum.
Going forward, October 1, 2025, the beginning of the fourth quarter is being considered a possible bullish factor. Traditionally, the fourth quarter has been the quarter when Bitcoin has performed the best, as it has made an average of 85.42 percent since 2013, according to CoinGlass data. This period may serve as further evidence of Bitcoin and crypto markets in general, in case historical trends are fulfilled.
Altogether, it is possible to note that nowadays, Bitcoin is approaching a serious resistance at the price of 116,000, and the future course of the coin will probably depend on the next Fed rate announcement and the market season. Although the reactions of various analysts differ, some are cautiously pessimistic, whereas others may reach higher heights. The confidence of long-term holders does not wane and is indicative of the fact that the groundwork towards long-term growth is still there, even though this is volatile in the short run.